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31st
August 2010
Backlash
From Down Under
Australians boomerang
Labour for stabbing Kevin Rudd in the back;
and send a backlash message to the world from
the deep Outback.
The
real Crocodile Dundee must be smiling. Last
weekend, his people in the vast Australian states
and cities gave the world a reminder of how
a mature electorate can always teach any political
party, no matter how strong the most lasting
lesson of electoral politics -- that it’s
always the voters in charge. At the end of it
the recent Australian poll, the politicians
in Canberra found, to their surprise, that they’d
thrown a boomerang that had returned to hit
them smack on the head -- and it’s Dundee
and the people of the great aboriginal Outback
who’ll decide the future for the rest
of this vast continental island.
The recent premature Australia elections (due
in October) resulted in a tie -- and no new
government. Over 40 million voters cast their
ballots. But it boiled down to three Independents
representing Dundee’s people who will
decide which party governs the world’s
biggest and largest island.
The dominating Labour and the Liberal parties
each got the same number of seats. Either can
only form the next government with the support
of some or all of the four Independents who
won. Then representative of the Green Party
is expected to side with Labour, but the other
three Lone Rangers are negotiating as a team
with both parties. Pork Barrel politics is alive
at its best, with each side promising to do
more for the rural Outback people that have
never really matters to the parties in Canberraed,
Sydney, Melbourne, Victoria, New South Wales
and the other Australian urban voting constituency
metropolises.
The tie is biting the two major parties hard.
All of this past week, Labour Leader Julia Gillard
and her Liberal opposite were wooing and courting
the three independent MPs, who are aware of
the great value of their individual and collective
political capital to each of the two parties.
The arithmetic is simple, but the political
maths isn’t that easy to work out. With
the Green in the bag, Labour now needs at least
two of the three independents to secure an unbeatable
lead on the Liberals. But that would earn Labour
only a cliff-hanging majority government. The
Liberals, on the other hand, now need at least
two of the three independents to keep Labour
at bay, or all three to form a government with
the shortest of coat-tails.
This kind of suspense is not known to happen
in Australian elections. A first-term Australian
government has never lost an election in 70
years, so Labour wants not to be the first.
But no opposition leader has equalized an Australian
Prime Minister in popularity in such a short
time ahead of an election and the Liberals can
truly upset Labour’s apple cart.
Labour is in a tailspin. It still runs a caretaker
government as an interim administration. But
it never expected the snap election it called
to confirm Mrs Gillard as the first woman Prime
Minister of Australia to result in a near rejection.
Labourites, Liberals and all of Australia now
face two prospects – ether the parties
end up (like in Japan and Italy, jockeying permanently
to change Prime Minister almost annually; or,
return to the polls for a real mandate. Both
choices are fraught with danger, But how did
it get like that? Well, the answers are many,
but most of all it has to do with the feeling
across the country that Julia Gillard and the
others in the leadership of the Labour Party
had stabbed popular Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
in the back when they mounted a palace coup
against him in the middle of the night. No one
on this side of the world had even heard Mrs
Gillard’s name, but all of a sudden, one
morning, Australians awoke to find out she was
their new Prime Minister. Rudd had been ousted
by his deputy and was left in tears.
Australians across the political spectrum respected
Rudd’ early actions as Prime Minister.
He led Labour to win the last general elections
by a massive popular vote; as Prime Minister,
he said “We’re sorry” to Australia’s
original Aborigines for their history of exploitation
at the hands of settlers and other descendants;
he also said “sorry” to thousands
of (now aged) children abducted from war-ravaged
Britain and forced into new lives Down Under
many decades ago. No other Labour Prime Minister
has had Rudd’s popularity of late.
The only persons Kevin Rudd got unpopular with
were the supporters of the giant mining entities
like Rio Tinto, after he indicated his government
will be introducing new taxes to help the government
earn more from sources best able to pay. The
mining companies complained and started fighting
back, but Rudd wasn’t backing down. He
was heading for a showdown with the mighty mining
community – and that’s when Mrs
Gillard and the plotters in the dark stabbed
him in he back. He didn’t see it coming,
as he was looking ahead at greener political
pastures.
So, why did they do it? Why did they stab their
Prime Minister in the back? Mrs Gaillard and
her team claimed Rudd was about to get unpopular
– as she put it, “a good government
was about to lose its way”. So they decided
to make a stitch in time before election time.
But the voters – Labour’s and others
-- clearly didn’t buy that argument. The
explanation was simply too astrologically sophisticated
to be believed. Labourites were confused. Their
party had just executed a strategy that worked
for those who planned it, but it was against
the man they’d chosen to lead them --
and the country -- at the last elections. Uncertainty
reigned supreme.
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After Mrs Gillard
was sworn in as Prime Minister -- at a ceremony
where Mr Rudd was forced to sit through the
humiliating culmination of the palace coup
against him with those who planned and executed
it -- she behaved like any new Prime Minister,
talking about her future vision for the country.
Born on the island of Barry in the English
port city of South Wales (where St. Lucia’s
bananas still land) she’s an immigrant
who climbed the Australian state ladder with
much gusto in little time. The transplanted
Pacific Brit said she wanted to see Australia
dump the Queen of England as its Head of State
-- but only after Queen Elizabeth is Her Majesty
no more.
However, it was her next move that doomed
Mrs Gillard and her Labour Party. She didn’t
need to, but wanted to electorally confirm
herself in the Prime Minister’s job.
Not wanting to be described as having been
handed Rudd’s job like the head of John
the Baptist on a silver platter, she and Labour
arranged an early general election to have
the voters confirm her. Big mistake. Mrs Gillard
thought she was only seeking her confirmation,
but she was also asking Australians to approve
the manner in which King Kevin had been stabbed
in the back by his own princes in favour of
a princess who was already heir to the throne.
Mrs Gillard and Labour ought to have learned
from some recent examples. In Britain, Gordon
Brown became Labour Leader and was sworn in
as Prime Minister just ahead of Tony Blair
completing his second term. Unlike Australia’s
Labour, British Labour succeeded in confirming
Brown in the due general elections. (After
all, he remained a faithful Deputy Prime Minister
and hadn’t stabbed Blair in the back…)
But when Brown called his first election near
the end of his first term as an elected Prime
Minister, British voters returned an inconclusive
response that forced the two major parties
-- Labour and Conservative -- to go on bended
knees to the Liberal Democrats. After three
consecutive terms in office, Labour had received
a backlash from the electorate, which was
obviously not overwhelmed by Brown in the
last British poll.
Mrs Gillard and Labour could also have learned
from the last general elections in Trinidad
& Tobago earlier this year, called much
prematurely by Prime Minister Patrick Manning
to worm himself out of an uneasy parliamentary
situation. Trinidadians were clearly upset
at having to go back to the polls, two years
ahead of the due date, just because Prime
Minister Manning couldn’t settle his
party’s problems internally and in the
parliament. The opposition parties saw an
opening and moved quickly. Mrs Kamla Persad-Bisessar
succeeded in replacing Basdeo Panday as Leader
of the United National Congress and then Opposition
Leader – unlike Mrs Gillard, without
spilling political blood. Mrs Persad-Bissessar
was also selected to lead a grand opposition
coalition against Manning’s People’s
National Movement. The coalition roundly defeated
the PNM and Mrs Persad-Bissessar became Prime
Minister, earning her victory spurs all the
way.
Obviously, Mrs Gillard was probably looking
at other examples. Or, maybe, she was seeking
to design her own shortcut path to the throne.
But she had taken her eyes off the ball –
and that’s when the electorate scored
the equalizer that knifed her in the heart
like she and the others had done to Rudd.
It’s now penalty shoot-out time on the
Australian political battlefield. Labour and
the Liberals have tied the goal score, but
it’s the new frontline independents
who will be spinning the coin and making the
call to decide which team they will kick for.
The penalty kicks can continue until one side
is clearly ahead, but in this brand of political
football, the game can also be over in a day,
or it can go on and on, without end. It can
last as long as five years, but it could also
be over in one day – as Kevin Rudd sadly
learned and Manning found out..
So, is there any lesson for St. Lucia? Or
the rest of the Caribbean?
Stephenson King and the UWP thought against
calling a snap election to confirm him as
Prime Minister after Sir John was buried.
It’s never been clear to the public
how he succeeded Sir John as Political leader
and Prime Minister, but his party gathered
around him and elected not to take the chance
and seek a fresh mandate without Sir John.
The UWP chose instead to ride it out, test
the waters along the way, hold on to power
and build its electoral case until it’s
ready to call the next general elections.
Kenny Anthony and the SLP are in no position
to decide on the exact date of the next elections,
but there are lessons from Australia too for
the local opposition party – if only
a reminder of the potential political cost
of changing horsemen or horses in mid-stream;
and the always unpredictable response from
an electorate that didn’t cause the
mess it’ being called upon to clean-up.
However, there’s also one lesson the
Australians can learn from St. Lucia’s
rich political experience – that returning
to the polls for a better mandate than that
offered by the voters in a national poll can
also result in the electorate rejecting the
rudeness of the reluctant or ingrate winners
by returning the very same result a second
time around.
It’s only in situations like these here
described that some parties and politicians
are forced to feel, learn and understand the
power of the voters. Such situations also
allow those politicians and voters who didn’t
know to better now understand and appreciate
the importance, extreme value and full equality
of each and every vote on Election Day, whether
the elector is rich or poor, local or foreign,
friend or family foe.
The one constant lesson for all parties and
politicians here and everywhere else, however,
is that the electorate should never be taken
for granted. They will always strike back
when you least expect it. And they’ll
kick you in the place it hurts most. Yes,
in the ballot box.
Discuss
Story
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