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12th August 2010
Daily Markets Wrap Up
Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

Global Markets

• Confidence among U.S. small businesses fell in July to the lowest level in four months, led by declining expectations for economic growth, a private survey found.

• Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, accelerated in July led by higher energy costs. The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose to 1.2 percent from 0.8 percent in June.

• French industrial production fell more than economists forecast in June amid a decline in car production as the government phases out purchase incentives.

• China’s trade surplus reached an 18-month high as exports rose to a record and import gains slowed, adding pressure on officials to allow faster appreciation of the yuan.

• China’s property prices rose at the slowest pace in six months in July as the government cracked down on speculation to prevent asset bubbles.

• Bank of America, hit by last month’s disclosure of a potential $10 billion charge tied to new regulations, may add $13 billion to its book value when it posts gains from a Chinese bank stake for the first time in October.

• U.S. Treasury 10 year note yields hovered near a 15 month low (2.83%) before a Federal Reserve statement that will signal whether the economy needs additional stimulus. Some investors have speculated that the Fed is moving towards another round of debt purchases after reports cast doubt on the economy’s ability to recover. The central bank bought $300 billion of Treasuries from March to October 2009 to bring down borrowing costs.

Figure 1: NFIB small business optimism index edges lower

Source: NFIB, Haver Analytics

 
 

Caribbean Markets

Barbados: The focus in Barbados by tourism officials should be on emerging markets such as Brazil, Panama and China according to the Central Bank. While the Trinidad and Tobago market has shown some growth, it is the Other Caribbean (market) which is not showing the same kind of growth, stated the Central Bank of Barbados in its review of the economy. “Even though arrivals from Trinidad and Tobago increased, the number of visitors from other CARICOM islands contracted and high airfares relative to those for international travel, continued to be an obstacle to intra-regional travel.” Long stay arrivals from the UK – another key source market – have also declined.

Jamaica: According to local press reports commercial bank loans to agriculture and production accounted for a combined $13.2 billion dollars in May 2010, 5.3% of the total loans in that month and almost twice that given in the same period to those sectors last year, data from the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) reveals. In May this year, commercial bank loans to agriculture increased by $2.8 billion over last year to $6.68 billion, a 42.9% increase year on year. Similarly, loans for production increased 48% to $6.5 billion this year, $3 billion more than the same period in 2009.

Trinidad: Reported in the local press the economy of Trinidad and Tobago grew 2.3% in the first quarter of this year and, once again, it was the energy sector that led the way. But the Central Bank says it’s not all a good thing for the twin-island republic. In its Economic Bulletin, the Central Bank said that, as in the immediately preceding period, the growth for the first three months of this year came entirely from the energy sector which recorded 5.5% growth. The non-energy sector was flat, coming out of about - 3.7% in the last quarter of 2009. The Central Bank has indicated that the short-term outlook for the economy is uncertain and will be dependent on the strength of the ongoing global recovery and the level of fiscal support that the Government will be able to provide.


Figure 3: Tracking key Caribbean financial indicators

DISCLAIMER- This document is for informational purposes only. This information is based on the close of the previous business day activity. The information presented is from usually reliable sources. FirstCaribbean has not independently verified the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained in this report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report. FirstCaribbean International Bank accepts no liability for any loss occasioned by reliance on any information contained herein which may prove to be incorrect.


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